What Drives the Forecast
Aurora is driven by geomagnetic activity: when the Kp index is high, the auroral oval expands and aurora is more likely at lower latitudes. Forecasts use solar wind data, CME arrival predictions, and Kp (observed and predicted) to estimate aurora probability and visibility by latitude.
Who Provides Forecasts
NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) provides Kp forecasts and aurora outlooks. AuroraWatch UK (Lancaster University) uses magnetometer data for a green/yellow/amber/red activity level. Cosmic Radar shows the daily Kp and an aurora outlook in the report (e.g. low/moderate/high chance) so you can see at a glance when conditions are favorable. For detailed forecasts and maps, use NOAA SWPC and AuroraWatch UK.
Sources and further reading
- NOAA – Aurora forecast – 3-day forecast and Kp
- AuroraWatch UK – Magnetometer-based aurora alerts
- ESA Space Weather – European service