What is Forecast?
Space weather forecasting aims to predict solar flares, CME arrival at Earth, geomagnetic storm strength, and aurora probability. Forecasts use solar images (e.g. SDO, SOHO), solar wind measurements from upstream satellites (ACE, DSCOVR), and models of CME propagation and magnetospheric response.
Lead Times
Flares: Radiation reaches Earth in ~8 minutes; warnings are short. CMEs: Typically 1–3 days from eruption to Earth impact; arrival time and strength are forecast with improving accuracy. Geomagnetic activity (Kp) is predicted from expected solar wind and CME conditions. Aurora forecasts use Kp and other indices.
Who Forecasts?
NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC), ESA, and NASA provide public forecasts and alerts. Cosmic Radar aggregates daily Kp, reported flares and CMEs, and aurora outlook so you can follow forecasts in one place.
Sources and further reading
- NOAA SWPC – Forecasts – 3-day forecast and alerts
- ESA Space Weather – European forecasts
- NASA DONKI – Space weather events database